Your phone can show one temperature while a Kalshi daily weather contract settles on another. The contract names a specific source, station and date, and a general weather app may describe a different station, interval or period.
Kalshi’s weather markets guide says each market names its settlement source in its rules, and that apps such as AccuWeather, iOS Weather or Google Weather may help with guidance but do not decide outcomes.
The daily contract names its evidence
Per Kalshi, daily high and low temperature markets settle on the final climate report issued by the National Weather Service for the listed station, typically released the next morning. Hourly temperature markets are different: they settle on The Weather Company’s reading at an exact time for the coordinates named in the rules. This article covers daily markets only. Do not apply it to hourly, precipitation or index markets without reading their own rules.
Read the station, date and condition together. A daily high at an airport is not the temperature near your home, and a range contract is not the same as an “or above” threshold.
Why public airport readings can look inconsistent
The National Weather Service explains in its airport temperature guide that the shortened five-minute reports carry temperature only to the nearest whole degree Celsius, and may not match what the station tracks internally. The station’s own record of the daily high and low is the most precise, and that is what feeds the Daily Climate Report.
The NWS observations FAQ gives an example. An actual reading of 80°F converts to 26.7°C, rounds to 27°C for the five-minute report, and converts back to 81°F on many websites. The daily extreme can also happen between public observations. So a row of readings on a weather site need not reproduce the official daily high.
Daylight saving time
Kalshi notes that the NWS climate reports record daily highs in local standard time. During daylight saving time, that means the high is recorded between 1:00 AM and 12:59 AM local time the next day, not midnight to midnight on your clock. Check the measurement period, not just the date.
When settlement waits
Kalshi says a daily market can be delayed in rare cases, for example if the climate report high is lower than an earlier preliminary figure, or if the high is not consistent with the 6-hour or 24-hour highs in the METAR reports. A short wait after a market closes is not by itself an account problem.
If a result looks wrong, save the contract wording and the source report with its date and issue time. That is better evidence for a support request than two conflicting app screenshots.
For other event-contract routes, see our prediction market hub and our Kalshi review.
Sources: Kalshi help center and National Weather Service pages linked above, checked November 2, 2026.
